费雪方程式为什么在中国失灵了？

Group 1 - The year 2025 is expected to be a "water release year" for monetary easing, with consumer subsidies doubled, yet the consumer price index from January to November shows a year-on-year change of 0.0% [2] - The Fisher equation, proposed by economist Irving Fisher in 1911, suggests that an increase in money supply typically leads to rising prices. In China, broad money supply (M2) surged by 8% to 337 trillion yuan (approximately 48 trillion USD), significantly exceeding the money supply of the US, Japan, and the Eurozone combined [4] - The increase in M2 has not translated into consumer spending, as the funds have primarily flowed to the production side rather than directly to consumers, indicating a disconnect in the expected economic cycle [4] Group 2 - The failure is not in the Fisher equation but in investment policies, as the production side has not effectively stimulated demand and employment, leading to diminishing returns on investment [6] - The root cause of diminishing efficiency is resource misallocation, where funding decisions are made by office elites rather than responding to market signals, highlighting the need for reforms in the factor market [6] - The upcoming year will see a renewed emphasis on strengthening the demand side, with consumer subsidies expected to double again, although international institutions maintain a conservative outlook due to limited available tools [6]