碳酸锂行情“V型反转” 2026年能否继续“狂飙”？

Core Viewpoint - The lithium carbonate market is expected to experience a rebound in 2025, with prices showing a V-shaped recovery after hitting a low of 59,000 yuan/ton in June, eventually surpassing 130,000 yuan/ton by December, marking an increase of over 120% from the low point [1][2][3]. Price Trends - In early 2025, lithium carbonate prices fluctuated around 75,200 yuan/ton, dropping below 70,000 yuan/ton by the end of April and reaching a low of 59,000 yuan/ton in June [1]. - By July 2025, prices began to rebound, breaking through 65,000 yuan/ton on July 14, 70,000 yuan/ton on July 21, and closing at 76,680 yuan on July 24, eventually exceeding 120,000 yuan/ton by December 23 [2]. - The price trajectory for 2025 is characterized by a typical V-shaped curve, with significant recovery driven by demand from the energy storage sector and a reduction in inventory levels [1][2]. Demand and Supply Dynamics - The demand for lithium carbonate is supported by a substantial increase in global power battery installations, which reached approximately 867.4 GWh from January to October 2025, a year-on-year growth of 34% [3]. - The new energy storage capacity in China exceeded 100 million kilowatts by September 2025, representing a growth of over 30 times compared to the end of the 13th Five-Year Plan, accounting for over 40% of the global total [4]. - The long-term outlook for lithium demand remains optimistic, with projections indicating that global lithium demand could reach 2 million tons of lithium carbonate equivalent by 2026, driven by sectors such as electric vehicles and energy storage [7]. Industry Performance - The recovery in lithium prices has positively impacted the performance of lithium companies, with stock prices of Tianqi Lithium and Ganfeng Lithium increasing by over 160% and 173%, respectively, since their lows in April [3]. - Ganfeng Lithium reported a net profit increase of 364.02% year-on-year in its third-quarter report, reflecting improved financial performance amid rising lithium prices [3]. Future Outlook and Challenges - The market may face uncertainties in 2026, with potential downward pressure on prices if inventory levels rise significantly due to slower-than-expected growth in energy storage demand [8]. - The development of alternative technologies, such as sodium batteries, may introduce new variables into the market, potentially exerting downward pressure on lithium carbonate prices, although current production scales and costs differ significantly from lithium batteries [9].