Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-12-31 15:21Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the A-share market is expected to maintain a "slow bull" pattern in 2026, driven by policy support and economic recovery, with key investment themes including technology growth, supply-demand improvements, and beneficiaries of RMB appreciation [1] - The consumption subsidy for "old-for-new" policies decreased from 81 billion yuan in the first half of 2025 to 69 billion yuan in the second half, but is likely to continue into 2026, potentially boosting consumption [2] - Analysts predict that the first quarter of 2026 may see the lowest growth rate for the year due to weaker policy support compared to previous years and the impact of the extended Spring Festival holiday on production [2] Group 2 - The global economic outlook for 2026 remains resilient, with major economic organizations projecting only a slight decline in growth compared to 2025, indicating a favorable external environment [3] - The A-share market is entering a "profit-driven" phase in 2026, supported by fundamental recovery and global liquidity easing, with a focus on stabilizing employment and market expectations [4] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes high-quality development and technological self-reliance, suggesting long-term policy support for technology and advanced manufacturing sectors [5] Group 3 - Investment strategies should focus on sectors highlighted in the "14th Five-Year Plan," including AI, commercial aerospace, low-altitude economy, and renewable energy, as well as traditional industries undergoing transformation [5] - The investment landscape is shifting towards industrial resources and equipment exports, with recommendations for sectors such as copper, lithium, and photovoltaic equipment, as well as consumer sectors benefiting from income recovery [6]