汇丰刘晶预计2026年中国降准50BP，财政赤字率或维持4%

Core Viewpoint - HSBC forecasts that China will implement a 50 basis point reserve requirement ratio cut by 2026, supported by a series of easing policies and resilient exports, aiming for a 5% economic growth in 2025 [1] Economic Growth Outlook - Global economic growth is expected to remain stable in 2026, with a slowdown in trade export growth, while strong investments in artificial intelligence will support investment and trade growth in the next two years [1] - China is projected to achieve around 5% economic growth in 2025, aided by easing policies introduced since Q4 2024 and resilient export performance [1] Structural Transformation - The year 2026 marks the beginning of the "14th Five-Year Plan," where China will continue its structural transformation and maintain reasonable growth, with domestic demand, including consumption and investment, becoming the main driver of growth [1] Fiscal Policy - The Central Economic Work Conference has proposed maintaining a necessary fiscal deficit, with HSBC estimating the fiscal deficit rate target for 2026 to remain at a relatively high level of 4% [1] - The issuance scale of local government special bonds and special treasury bonds is expected to be similar to that of 2025 to support consumption and major project investments [1] Monetary Policy - There is potential for a further interest rate cut of 20 basis points in 2026, along with a possible reserve requirement ratio cut of 50 basis points [1]