Resilient Demand and Strategic Upgrades Drive XOM's Refining Success

Core Insights - Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM) has reported significant gains in its refining business, driven by strong refining margins, which have supported earnings growth in the third quarter [1][9]. Refining Business Performance - Refining margins have strengthened due to lower crude prices and tighter product supply caused by refinery outages and supply chain disruptions [2][9]. - The company is focusing on high-grading its refinery network and investing in high-quality sites with lower costs and diverse product offerings, resulting in fewer but more efficient refineries [2][4]. Upgrading Refinery Output - ExxonMobil is investing in upgrading its refineries to convert low-value products into high-value products, exemplified by the Singapore CRISP project, which transforms low-value residues into profitable products like lubricant base stocks and diesel [3][9]. Competitors in the Refining Sector - Phillips 66 (PSX) and Valero Energy Corporation (VLO) are also benefiting from strong refining margins, with PSX achieving a 99% crude utilization rate in Q3, the highest since 2018 [5][6]. - Valero Energy operates 15 refineries with a combined throughput capacity of 3.2 million barrels per day, allowing it to cater to diverse market needs [7]. Stock Performance and Valuation - ExxonMobil's shares have increased by 12.4% over the past six months, outperforming the industry average increase of 11.2% [8]. - The company trades at a trailing 12-month EV/EBITDA of 7.85X, above the industry average of 4.88X [10]. Earnings Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for ExxonMobil's 2025 earnings has been revised upward over the past 30 days, indicating positive sentiment [11].