Tesla publishes analyst forecasts suggesting sales set to fall

Core Viewpoint - Tesla has published lower-than-expected sales forecasts for 2025, indicating a potential decline in deliveries compared to previous targets set by CEO Elon Musk [1][2]. Group 1: Sales Forecasts - Tesla is expected to deliver 423,000 vehicles in Q4 2025, representing a 16% decline from Q4 2024 [1]. - Total deliveries for 2025 are estimated at 1.64 million, down from 1.79 million in 2024, with projections of 1.75 million in 2026 and 3 million in 2029 [2][7]. - The forecasts for 2025 and beyond are significantly lower than Musk's stated goal of producing 4 million cars annually by the end of 2027 [2][7]. Group 2: Market Valuation and Shareholder Sentiment - Tesla's market valuation stands at $1.4 trillion, surpassing the combined value of the next 30 car manufacturers, despite producing less than 20% of Toyota's output [3]. - Much of Tesla's high valuation is based on expectations that Musk will lead the company to dominate self-driving technology and robotics [4]. - Shareholder approval of a $1 trillion compensation plan for Musk is contingent on Tesla delivering 20 million cars, with 10 million requiring active subscriptions for its autonomous software [8]. Group 3: External Factors Impacting Sales - Tesla has faced challenges in sales partly due to consumer backlash against Musk's political affiliations [4]. - Musk's political donations and subsequent actions, including efforts to cut government spending, have influenced the regulatory environment for electric vehicles, impacting sales [5]. - Current estimates from Tesla are lower than those from investment banks, which forecasted 440,907 vehicle deliveries for Q4 2025 [6].