AB InBev's Latin America Strength Offsets U.S. Beer Weakness

Core Insights - AB InBev's third-quarter 2025 results highlight the stabilizing role of Latin America, which offsets the ongoing softness in the U.S. beer market, with U.S. revenues declining 0.8% year over year due to lower volumes and cautious consumer behavior [1][7] U.S. Market Performance - In the U.S., sales to retailers fell 2.5% year over year, and sales to wholesalers declined 2.7%, reflecting industry-wide pressure on beer consumption [2] - Despite the decline in sales volumes, disciplined revenue management and productivity initiatives led to EBITDA growth of 0.4% and margin expansion of 42 basis points, demonstrating AB InBev's ability to maintain profitability in a challenging environment [2] Latin America Performance - Latin America showed healthier fundamentals, with Colombia achieving low-teen revenue growth driven by record-high volumes, premium brand momentum, and market share gains, resulting in mid-single-digit EBITDA growth [3] - Brazil, despite facing adverse weather and a weak consumer environment, benefited from pricing discipline and cost control, with revenues per hectoliter rising 6.5% and EBITDA remaining flat with 68 basis points of margin expansion [3] - Mexico also experienced steady growth, with low-single-digit revenue gains in the quarter and mid-single-digit growth in the first three quarters of 2025, supported by premium brands and strong traction in no-alcohol offerings [4] Overall Company Performance - AB InBev's geographic diversification and strength in Latin America, along with effective revenue management, helped cushion the impact of U.S. beer market weakness, reinforcing the company's ability to deliver EBITDA growth and margin expansion [5] - The company's shares have gained 8.5% in the past three months, outperforming the industry's growth of 2% [6] Valuation and Earnings Estimates - AB InBev trades at a forward 12-month price-to-earnings ratio of 15.73X, which is higher than the industry's 14.19X multiple [8] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for AB InBev's 2025 and 2026 earnings implies year-over-year growth of 3.7% and 12.3%, respectively, although earnings estimates have been revised downward in the past 30 days [10]