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证券研究报告 乳制品：乳饮料&营养品&深加工业务表现亮眼 必选消费 海外看中国：消费恢复呈结构性分化 华泰研究 2026 年 2 月 04 日│中国内地 动态点评 我们梳理了海外必选消费品公司中国区业务的表现：部分高端消费出现回暖 迹象，中档及大众价格带的改善尚不显著；外资品牌受损于弱需求环境下"去 品牌化"的行业趋势及对渠道变革相对滞后的反应速度，整体表现承压。部 分外资品牌在中国市场的复苏进度或落后于本土品牌，因此未必能作为行业 复苏的先行指标，多数公司在中国市场仍面临消费偏弱、渠道变革、竞争加 剧及库存压力等挑战，而实现增长的企业主要依靠自身品牌与渠道的 alpha。 烈酒：外部环境承压，中国区业务表现有所分化 海外烈酒龙头主要是高端洋酒品牌，多数公司中国区营收占比不高。受需求 萎缩和消费场景承压的影响，中国白酒市场目前仍处于深度调整期，与此相 对应，25 年至今海外烈酒巨头在中国市场业绩表现普遍承压，且下半年压 力较上半年多有所加剧。其中保乐力加和帝亚吉欧中国区业务均有拖累；人 头马君度销售额企稳（扣除春节效应），内部呈现结构分化。展望 26 年， 帝亚吉欧管理层整体保持谨慎态度，其管理层预计筑底过程 ...

Players in the Zacks Beverages – Alcohol industry remain under pressure as inflation continues to drive higher costs across labor, transportation and raw materials. Rising ingredient prices, shipping expenses and packaging costs are compressing margins, while elevated spending on marketing, promotions and day-to-day operations is weighing on profitability. Adding to these challenges, tariffs pose a further risk to the U.S. beverage alcohol market by increasing prices for imported brands, softening consumer ...

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Core Insights - Anheuser-Busch InBev (AB InBev) is experiencing strong revenue growth driven by consistent consumer demand, effective pricing strategies, and premiumization across its diverse brand portfolio [1][7] - The company is focusing on expanding its premium and super-premium beer offerings, with brands like Corona performing well internationally [2][5] - AB InBev is enhancing growth through its Beyond Beer portfolio and digital transformation, entering new beverage categories and scaling digital platforms for better customer engagement [3][4] Revenue and Growth Strategies - The premiumization strategy is a significant growth opportunity, with investments in a diverse portfolio of global and specialty premium brands [5] - In Q3 2025, Corona achieved a 6.3% revenue increase outside its home market, with double-digit growth in 33 markets [5] - Digital platforms, including B2B tools, are contributing approximately 70% to revenues, with the omnichannel ecosystem generating $325 million in Q3 2025 [4][7] Market Position and Competitiveness - AB InBev is well-positioned for growth, competing with companies like The Boston Beer Company, Constellation Brands, and Brown-Forman [6] - The company's disciplined revenue management and sustained investments in brand building and operational efficiency are strengthening its leadership in the global beverage industry [1][7]

Core Insights - The article highlights the performance and outlook of several companies, including Microsoft, Anheuser-Busch, CVS Health, and Stran & Co., emphasizing their recent stock performance and strategic initiatives. Microsoft - Microsoft's shares have outperformed the Zacks Computer - Software industry over the past year, with a gain of 2.3% compared to a decline of 3.7% for the industry [4] - The company has strong fundamentals, with Azure holding a 25% share of the cloud market and strategic integration of AI through OpenAI [4] - Microsoft generates over $100 billion in annual operating cash flows with margins exceeding 40%, supported by diversified revenue streams [5] - The company faces intense competition from AWS and Google Cloud, along with rising regulatory scrutiny and increasing capital expenditure requirements for AI infrastructure [5] - Long-term debt stands at $43.2 billion, raising concerns about financial flexibility amid rising interest rates [6] Anheuser-Busch - Anheuser-Busch's shares have outperformed the Zacks Beverages - Alcohol industry over the past year, with a gain of 44.5% compared to 14.4% for the industry [7] - The company's pricing actions and premiumization strategies have contributed to a 3% year-over-year revenue increase in Q3 2025 [7] - EBITDA margin expansion is attributed to cost efficiencies and premiumization, with a predicted 4.1% rise in EBITDA for 2025 [8] - The Beyond Beer portfolio saw a 27% revenue increase, driven by significant growth in the Cutwater brand [8] - Digital platforms like BEES and Zé Delivery have enhanced customer engagement, although the company is experiencing volume declines due to a soft consumer landscape [9] CVS Health - CVS Health's shares have outperformed the Zacks Medical Services industry over the past year, with a gain of 57.3% compared to 5.3% for the industry [10] - The company is making progress in returning Aetna to target margins, supported by strong fundamentals and recent Star Ratings success [10] - CVS is implementing a restructuring plan to close 271 stores and aims to generate $500 million in savings this year [11] - The company's retail pharmacy script share remains strong, and it is advancing its digital strategy through investments in emerging technologies [11] - Ongoing pharmacy reimbursement pressures and macroeconomic challenges are affecting CVS Health's profitability [12] Stran & Co. - Stran & Co.'s shares have outperformed the Zacks Advertising and Marketing industry over the past year, with a gain of 100% compared to a decline of 10.5% for the industry [13] - The company, with a market capitalization of $36.58 million, is experiencing rapid scale expansion and better cost control [13] - A recent acquisition has improved the company's growth outlook by adding new vertical exposure and enhancing cross-selling potential [14] - Revenue diversification across promotional products and services reduces dependence on any single market, although the company remains unprofitable [14] - Working capital demands and reliance on discretionary marketing spend introduce macro risks [15]

Core Insights - The beverage landscape is evolving, with Anheuser-Busch InBev (AB InBev) and The Boston Beer Company (Boston Beer) as key competitors in the alcoholic beverage market, each adapting to changing consumer preferences [1][2] Group 1: AB InBev (BUD) - BUD dominates the brewing industry through an extensive sourcing and distribution network, focusing on premiumization, digital transformation, and brand equity investment [2] - Premiumization is a central growth strategy for BUD, with strong performances from premium and super-premium brands, despite flat growth in the above-core portfolio due to challenges in China [4][9] - BUD's digital platforms, including BEES and Zé Delivery, are crucial for customer engagement, generating $13.3 billion in gross merchandise value (GMV), with a year-over-year increase of 11% [5][6] - The company’s global operating model allows it to adapt to local market dynamics, with megabrand revenues increasing by 3% year over year, driven by strong consumer demand [7] - BUD is expanding its portfolio beyond traditional beer, targeting a year-over-year EBITDA growth of 4-8% in 2025 [8][9] - BUD's sales are projected to decrease by 1.3% in 2025, but earnings per share (EPS) are expected to grow by 3.1% [14] Group 2: Boston Beer (SAM) - Boston Beer has a strong craft heritage and is diversifying its portfolio to include hard seltzers, ciders, and flavored malt beverages, but faces challenges in the competitive craft beer market [10][12] - The Samuel Adams brand, while iconic, is struggling with competition and changing consumer preferences, prompting Boston Beer to focus on revitalization and cost-efficiency [11] - Boston Beer is experiencing a slowdown in the hard seltzer category, with management forecasting a negative impact from tariffs of $9-$13 million in 2025 [13] - Sales for Boston Beer are expected to decline by 2.4% in 2025, with a modest EPS growth of 0.7% [14] Group 3: Performance and Valuation Comparison - Over the past year, BUD has outperformed with a total return of 43.2%, compared to the industry growth of 10.8% and Boston Beer’s decline of 14.4% [17] - BUD trades at a forward price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple of 16.56X, slightly above the industry average, while Boston Beer trades at a higher multiple of 18.95X [19][20] - BUD's valuation reflects strong momentum in high-growth brands, while Boston Beer faces uncertainty due to ongoing challenges in the craft beer segment [21][25] Conclusion - AB InBev is positioned as a more compelling investment opportunity due to its strong stock performance, attractive valuation, and clear growth strategy, while Boston Beer presents a longer-term opportunity amid its diversification efforts [25][26][27]

Core Viewpoint - Anheuser-Busch InBev SA/NV (BUD) stock has experienced significant volatility since March 2024, reaching a five-year low in January 2025 [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - The stock was bullish in March 2024 but has since faced a rollercoaster ride, indicating high volatility [1] Group 2: Analyst's Position - The analyst has no current stock, option, or derivative positions in any mentioned companies and does not plan to initiate any within the next 72 hours [1]

Core Viewpoint - Anheuser-Busch InBev SA/NV (BUD) stock has experienced significant volatility since March 2024, reaching a five-year low in January 2025 [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - The stock was noted to have reached a five-year low in January 2025, indicating a substantial decline in value [1] Group 2: Analyst's Perspective - The article reflects the author's personal opinions and does not represent any financial advice or recommendations [2]