625亿元！2026年首批“国补”已下达，以旧换新仍是扩大内需重要抓手

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government has announced the early allocation of 625 billion yuan in special long-term bonds to support the consumption upgrade policy, particularly focusing on the "two new" initiatives aimed at boosting consumer demand during peak seasons like New Year and Spring Festival [2]. Group 1: Policy Overview - The "two new" policy has expanded its coverage to include a wide range of consumer goods, from smartwatches to home appliances and vehicles [2][3]. - The policy emphasizes continuity and stability, with a focus on consumer goods exchange as a key strategy to expand domestic demand [2]. Group 2: Specific Measures - The updated policy includes new subsidies for equipment upgrades in various sectors, such as adding elevators in old residential areas and updating equipment in elderly care facilities [4]. - The consumer goods exchange program continues to support vehicle scrappage and replacement, as well as subsidies for six categories of home appliances, including refrigerators and air conditioners [4]. Group 3: Market Implications - Analysts suggest that the policy shift towards higher-value items like electric trucks and green appliances will enhance the effectiveness of fiscal spending in stimulating consumption [5]. - The transition from fixed subsidies to proportional subsidies for vehicles is expected to better reflect consumer purchasing power and encourage higher-quality purchases [5]. Group 4: Implementation Challenges - The government is addressing issues such as fraudulent claims and inefficient fund distribution, with measures to streamline application processes and enhance support for small businesses [6]. - A unified subsidy standard will be enforced nationwide to ensure consistency in the implementation of the "two new" policy [6]. Group 5: Future Outlook - Beyond the "two new" policy, there are indications that the government may introduce additional measures to boost service consumption and stabilize investment, potentially through a mid-term plan focusing on cultural and tourism sectors [7]. - The fiscal policy is expected to work in tandem with consumption policies to support domestic demand recovery [7].