美元的好日子到头了？华尔街预判：避险光环消退，2026年持续贬值

Core Viewpoint - The prediction that the US dollar may face a weakening turning point by 2026 is gaining traction among major banks and financial institutions, indicating a significant shift in global capital flows and asset allocation strategies [1][4]. Group 1: Dollar's Current Status - The dollar has maintained its position as the dominant global currency due to multiple advantages over the past few years [1]. - Analysts believe that the "golden strong period" of the dollar is nearing its end, with signs indicating a gradually unfavorable market environment for the dollar [1][3]. Group 2: Federal Reserve's Policy Impact - The Federal Reserve's shift in monetary policy is viewed as a key catalyst for the dollar's potential decline, as expectations grow that the Fed will be forced to initiate a rate-cutting cycle, ending a prolonged tightening phase [1][4]. - The aggressive interest rate hikes previously implemented by the Fed had attracted global capital, but the anticipated rate cuts will diminish the attractiveness of dollar-denominated assets [1][3]. Group 3: Economic Concerns - The US faces significant fiscal challenges, including a large federal budget deficit and high public debt, raising concerns about the long-term sustainability of its finances [3]. - The persistent current account deficit indicates a heavy reliance on foreign capital inflows to sustain the US economy [3]. Group 4: Global Market Reactions - A decline in the attractiveness of dollar assets could lead to a substantial reduction in foreign capital inflows that support the US economy [4]. - The diminishing "safe-haven" status of the dollar may weaken its support, prompting many countries to reduce their dollar reserves and increase holdings in gold or other currencies for trade [4]. Group 5: Future Implications - The market consensus suggests a moderate but sustained depreciation of the dollar by 2026, particularly against major currencies like the euro and yen [4]. - This potential shift will likely trigger a series of reactions in global markets, including a redistribution of capital and increased interest in foreign assets, necessitating adjustments in currency allocation strategies for investors [4].