人民币重返6时代，还要大幅升值吗？中国版“广场协议”不会上演

Core Viewpoint - The recent appreciation of the Renminbi (RMB) has sparked discussions among experts and institutions about its potential benefits and implications for the Chinese economy, with some suggesting a significant increase in its value [2][4]. Group 1: Benefits of RMB Appreciation - RMB appreciation could lead to a substantial increase in household purchasing power, with a potential rise from $23 trillion to $34.5 trillion if the currency appreciates by 50% [4]. - It may attract foreign investment, helping stabilize and rebound Chinese assets [4]. - A stronger RMB could reduce export competitiveness, potentially decreasing trade friction [4]. Group 2: Historical Context and Caution - The article draws parallels with Japan's experience during the Plaza Accord in the 1980s, where a forced appreciation of the yen led to significant economic challenges, including increased unemployment and a financial bubble [5][12]. - Japan's government believed that a controlled appreciation of the yen (within 20%) would not harm its economy, but the subsequent uncontrolled speculation led to severe consequences [8][12]. Group 3: Current Economic Implications - The notion that RMB appreciation will directly boost domestic consumption is questioned, as most consumers do not frequently purchase foreign goods or have overseas assets [14]. - The expectation that foreign capital will flow into China due to a stronger RMB is challenged, suggesting that capital may instead seek to convert RMB to USD and exit [16]. - The idea that reducing export competitiveness will alleviate trade tensions with the U.S. is deemed unrealistic, as geopolitical competition persists regardless of currency value [16]. Group 4: Future Considerations - While the RMB is considered undervalued based on purchasing power parity, any appreciation must align with the pace of China's economic development to avoid repeating Japan's mistakes [18]. - The focus should be on ensuring that financial resources benefit ordinary citizens rather than merely supporting corporate debt or production capacity [18].