欧盟“碳关税”落地 钢铝产业影响几何？

Core Viewpoint - The EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) will officially enter its "charging period" on January 1, 2026, initially covering six product categories: steel, cement, aluminum, fertilizers, electricity, and hydrogen. By 2028, the scope is expected to expand to approximately 180 downstream products, including washing machines and automotive parts, creating a comprehensive "green bill" that impacts both raw materials and finished products [1][2][4]. Group 1: CBAM Implementation and Scope - The CBAM's product coverage and execution timeline have become clearer, with a transitional phase from 2023 to 2025 focusing on carbon data research, leading to formal implementation in 2026 [2][3]. - The CBAM will charge for direct and indirect emissions from cement and fertilizers, while steel, aluminum, and hydrogen will not incur charges for indirect emissions [3][4]. - The EU plans to expand the CBAM to include downstream products related to steel and aluminum, with a total of 180 new products expected to be added by 2028 [3][4]. Group 2: Impact on Chinese Enterprises - Chinese enterprises exporting to the EU will need to establish differentiated carbon emission data management systems to comply with CBAM, particularly focusing on direct and indirect emissions [7][10]. - The introduction of a 50-ton annual import exemption threshold will significantly reduce the compliance burden for small and medium-sized enterprises, with approximately 90% of importers expected to be exempt from CBAM obligations [4][5]. - Major Chinese suppliers of steel and aluminum, such as China Aluminum and Nanshan Aluminum, may not be significantly impacted by CBAM due to their limited export volumes and ability to track production data [6][10]. Group 3: Carbon Footprint Regulations - The EU has introduced new battery regulations that require carbon footprint labeling, which will become another compliance requirement for exporting companies [8][9]. - The carbon footprint label will consist of four components, including a declaration of the battery's lifecycle carbon footprint, although the specific accounting methodology is still not defined [9][10]. Group 4: Strategic Responses and Advantages - Chinese companies are encouraged to adapt to EU standards and establish low-carbon supply chains to mitigate compliance risks while actively participating in international carbon rule-making [10][11]. - China's proactive approach to low-carbon transformation, including significant progress in energy structure and early adoption of low-carbon practices in industries like steel, positions it favorably against stricter EU regulations [10][11].