疯狂的金银，进击的铜锂，失意的原油

Core Insights - The commodity market in 2025 exhibited a historic divergence, with precious metals leading a significant bull market while energy and agricultural products faced a bear market [1][2]. Precious Metals - Silver surged over 146%, marking the largest annual increase in history, while gold rose more than 60%, achieving its strongest performance since 1979 [1][3]. - The price of silver reached a historical high of approximately $83 per ounce, driven by factors such as policy revaluation, supply constraints, industrial demand, and increased investment demand due to geopolitical risks [3]. - Gold prices also hit a record of $4,550 per ounce, with predictions suggesting it may challenge the $5,000 mark by Q1 2026, influenced by geopolitical risks and central bank purchases [5]. Industrial Metals - Copper experienced a nearly 44% increase, reaching a historical high of $12,960 per ton, supported by structural changes in market dynamics and supply constraints [2][8]. - Other industrial metals also showed strong performance, with aluminum rising 17% and tin prices increasing due to supply disruptions [10]. Lithium Market - Lithium carbonate prices rebounded strongly in 2025, with an annual increase of over 50%, driven by improved supply-demand dynamics in the electric vehicle and energy storage sectors [11]. Energy Market - The energy sector faced challenges, with WTI crude oil prices declining over 15%, marking the largest annual drop since 2020, due to oversupply concerns from non-OPEC+ countries [12][13]. - Analysts predict that the oversupply situation will persist into 2026, with oil prices expected to fluctuate between $50 and $70 per barrel unless significant supply disruptions occur [12]. Agricultural Products - The agricultural market struggled, with cocoa prices plummeting 48% due to a shift from supply tightness to abundance [15]. - Other agricultural commodities like raw sugar and robusta coffee also faced downward pressure, while soybeans showed slight gains [15].