Tesla(US:TSLA) 智通财经网·2025-12-31 23:50Core Viewpoint - Tesla's upcoming fourth-quarter delivery data for 2025 is highly anticipated, with a focus not only on vehicle sales but also on the progress of its autonomous taxi business, which is expected to be updated alongside the delivery figures on January 2 [1]. Group 1: Delivery Expectations - Market expectations for Tesla's fourth-quarter delivery are set at approximately 422,900 vehicles, with consensus estimates from FactSet around 440,000, down from nearly 460,000 a few weeks prior [1]. - In comparison, Tesla delivered about 497,000 vehicles in the third quarter of 2025 and approximately 496,000 in the fourth quarter of 2024 [1]. - The decline in delivery volume is attributed to the U.S. federal government's cancellation of the $7,500 electric vehicle tax credit in late September, which increased purchase costs and led to a surge in deliveries in the previous quarter [1]. Group 2: Stock Performance - Tesla's stock has experienced a six-day decline, closing at $449.72, down 1%, with a total drop of about 8% over this period, although it remains up approximately 11% for the year [2]. - Some investors believe the current stock price reflects a certain level of pessimism, with expectations that if deliveries are around 415,000, the stock price may stabilize [2]. - The market is particularly focused on the potential removal of human safety monitors from Tesla's autonomous taxis in Austin, which could mark a significant milestone in the commercialization of autonomous driving [2]. Group 3: Valuation and Future Outlook - Despite declining vehicle sales, Tesla's stock has risen about 13% this year, with the company's market capitalization around $1.6 trillion and a projected price-to-earnings ratio of about 220 for 2026 [3]. - The anticipated decline in vehicle sales to below 1.7 million in 2025 for the second consecutive year is overshadowed by market expectations regarding Tesla's applications in artificial intelligence, particularly in autonomous taxi services [3].