回望2025：有色/贵金属最值得关注的N个时刻

Core Insights - The year 2025 witnessed significant market movements in the non-ferrous and precious metals sectors, driven by geopolitical events and macroeconomic factors, leading to record price increases for gold and silver [3][4]. Copper Market - In late November to December 2025, copper prices surged, reaching historical highs of $12,960 per ton on the LME and over ¥100,000 per ton in Shanghai [5]. - The copper supply faced constraints due to structural issues, including declining resource grades and insufficient capital expenditure, alongside natural disasters [5]. - Demand for copper remained robust, driven by the dual forces of new energy and AI, leading to a three-phase price increase throughout the year [5]. - The investment strategy for 2026 suggests maintaining a focus on copper until mid-year, then diversifying into both copper and aluminum investments [5]. Aluminum Market - In early November 2025, aluminum prices rose sharply, driven by a significant increase in trading volume and a shift of capital from copper to aluminum [9]. - The rise in aluminum prices was supported by a tight supply situation and a growing belief in aluminum's long-term potential as a substitute for copper [9]. - The outlook for aluminum remains bullish, with expectations of a widening global primary aluminum deficit by 2026 [9]. Alumina Market - In July 2025, alumina prices experienced a notable increase despite a backdrop of oversupply, influenced by delayed market responses and macroeconomic sentiment [11]. - The market dynamics indicated a potential for further price declines in 2026, driven by cost pressures and competitive market conditions [11]. Zinc Market - In the fourth quarter of 2025, zinc prices began to rise due to domestic supply shortages and a shift in market dynamics towards replenishing inventories [13]. - The zinc market is transitioning from a bear market to a structural bull market, with expectations of a 2% increase in global zinc demand in 2026 [13]. Gold Market - From January to April 2025, gold prices surged due to geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainties, reaching $3,500 per ounce [17]. - The latter part of 2025 saw gold prices peak at $4,381 per ounce, driven by political pressures on the Federal Reserve and economic instability [22]. Silver Market - In late 2025, silver prices broke through a significant resistance level, reaching $80 per ounce, supported by high trading volumes and low domestic inventories [23]. - The price dynamics were characterized by strong investor interest and significant deviations from equilibrium price levels [23].