越南没料到，南北高铁还没开工，首富突然撤资，美国也卷铺盖走人

Core Insights - Vingroup, Vietnam's largest private enterprise, unexpectedly withdrew its bid for the $67 billion North-South high-speed rail project, leading to a significant drop in its stock value and a loss of nearly $2 billion in founder Pham Nhat Vuong's personal wealth [1][4] - The withdrawal follows the confirmation that the American M&G Investment Alliance, which had previously pledged to invest $100 billion, has also disappeared from the bidding process [1] Project Overview - The North-South high-speed rail is planned to connect Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City, covering approximately 1,540 kilometers and is considered a "national backbone project" [3] - Supporters cite an average daily air passenger flow of about 13,000 on the Hanoi-Ho Chi Minh route, comparable to China's Beijing-Shanghai line, suggesting sufficient demand for high-speed rail [3] Financial Viability - Internal calculations by VinSpeed indicate that the project would generate an average annual revenue of $5.6 billion over 30 years, but would incur operational costs of $4.2 billion annually, excluding interest, depreciation, and unexpected expansion costs [4] - The project's financial structure is heavily reliant on government support, with Vingroup proposing that only 20% of the funding come from private sources, while 80% would be covered by a 35-year interest-free government loan [6] Economic Context - The total investment of 490 billion RMB (approximately $67 billion) is more than double that of the Beijing-Shanghai high-speed rail, yet the cost structure is fundamentally imbalanced [6] - Vietnam's GDP for 2024 is projected at $476 billion, with total fiscal revenue of $77.5 billion, making the high-speed rail investment equivalent to 90% of the country's fiscal revenue [6] Strategic Implications - The primary issue with the North-South high-speed rail project is not merely a corporate decision but a fundamental misjudgment of its nature as a public infrastructure project that requires substantial fiscal backing and a robust industrial system [8] - For the project to move forward realistically, it must be fully government-led and recognized as a long-term public utility rather than relying on private investment to cover structural losses [8]