德国的豪赌：就在这一局

Core Viewpoint - Germany plans to finance €1 trillion in debt by 2026 to boost infrastructure and defense, aiming to revive the struggling European economy, but the effectiveness of this plan remains uncertain amid structural weaknesses and geopolitical tensions [1][3]. Group 1: Economic Outlook - Supporters believe that increased investment in infrastructure and defense will stimulate domestic demand and drive economic recovery, with some economists suggesting this is crucial for Germany to escape its recession since late 2022 [1][3]. - The Eurozone's economic growth is projected to slow to 1.2% in 2026, with a slight recovery to 1.4% in 2027, indicating a sluggish economic environment [1]. - The IFO Institute has downgraded Germany's economic growth forecast for 2026 to 0.8%, citing the impact of U.S. tariffs on EU goods as a contributing factor to further economic slowdown [3]. Group 2: Structural Challenges - Germany faces significant challenges, including declining labor potential, insufficient business investment confidence, and weak productivity growth, which could threaten its economic competitiveness without structural reforms [3]. - France, as another key EU economy, is also struggling with high debt levels, projected to reach 130% of GDP by 2030, raising doubts about the effectiveness of Germany's stimulus plan in addressing broader EU economic issues [5]. Group 3: Geopolitical and Trade Concerns - The increasing trade barriers and U.S. tariffs are expected to create uncertainty in Europe's economic outlook, complicating the potential success of Germany's fiscal stimulus [7]. - The interplay between fiscal stimulus and geopolitical tensions may lead to a prolonged struggle without clear short-term victories, raising questions about the sustainability of the proposed economic revival [7].