有人预测：不出意外，明后的房地产要迎来“4大转变”，太真实

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese real estate market is undergoing significant changes, shifting from a focus on price appreciation to stability and quality, with four major transformations expected in the coming years [5][49]. Group 1: Policy Changes - The policy approach is transitioning from aggressive stimulus measures to a focus on stability, controlling supply, reducing inventory, and improving quality [7][9]. - The central government emphasizes stabilizing the real estate market, with strategies to control new supply, reduce existing inventory, and enhance the quality of housing [10][11]. - The inventory cycle for unsold properties has reached a historical high of 27.4 months, indicating that inventory reduction will be a primary focus in the coming years [13]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The market is shifting from a nationwide price increase to city and product differentiation, with first-tier and strong second-tier cities showing resilience while weaker cities face significant price pressures [17][21]. - There is a clear distinction between different city tiers, with core urban areas maintaining demand and price stability, while some third and fourth-tier cities experience price declines [21][22]. - The focus is now on "good cities, good districts, and good products," as the era of indiscriminate buying is over [28]. Group 3: Market Structure - The market is moving towards a "stock era," where second-hand homes and affordable housing are becoming more prominent, with second-hand home transactions exceeding 40% during the 14th Five-Year Plan [30][31]. - The government has built over 11 million units of affordable housing during the 14th Five-Year Plan, with plans for further development to address housing needs for new citizens and youth [33]. - The promotion of selling completed homes aims to reduce risks associated with unfinished projects, providing buyers with more options [35]. Group 4: Changing Consumer Preferences - There is a shift in consumer focus from price to quality, service, and living experience, with buyers increasingly concerned about comfort and amenities [37][39]. - The emphasis on "good housing" is being reinforced by policies that promote better construction standards and living conditions [41]. - The investment appeal of real estate is diminishing as policies stress "housing for living, not for speculation," leading families to prioritize comfort and security over short-term gains [45][49].