“股票盛世”！全球股市连续第3年“两位数上涨”

Core Viewpoint - Global stock markets are projected to achieve double-digit gains for the third consecutive year in 2025, despite uncertainties from Trump's trade policies and concerns over AI sector bubbles. The MSCI global index has risen over 20% this year, outperforming most analysts' expectations [1]. Group 1: US Market Performance - After a significant downturn at the beginning of the year, the US stock market rebounded strongly, with the S&P 500 index showing an annual increase of nearly 16.5%. The release of a large language model by DeepSeek shocked Silicon Valley and led to a drop in tech stocks [3]. - Strong corporate earnings, expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, and better-than-expected economic growth quickly encouraged investors to return to the market [3]. Group 2: Global Market Comparison - Despite the strong performance of US stocks, markets in China, Japan, the UK, and Germany have outperformed the S&P 500 this year, with emerging market stock indices also performing better than US stocks. Investors are seeking more diversified allocations after experiencing volatility in US stocks earlier in the year [5]. Group 3: Valuation Concerns - Market valuations are significantly above historical averages, raising concerns among analysts that the current rally, driven by tech giants, may not be sustainable. The Shiller cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings ratio for the S&P 500 is nearing 40 times, second only to levels seen before the internet bubble burst in the early 2000s [7][9]. - Some analysts warn of complacency in the market, noting that the high valuation levels could lead to increased risks of a significant correction [9]. Group 4: Structural Risks - The current market rally, driven by a few stocks, is accumulating structural risks. The so-called "seven giants" of the US tech sector account for about a quarter of the MSCI global developed markets index, creating a deep dependency of global indices on the performance of these individual giants [9]. - The increasing concentration trend in the market is prompting a closer examination of the AI sector's merger and acquisition frenzy, which is creating a complex and interdependent financial network [9].