2025年大涨后，人民币对美元汇率2026年如何走

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the Chinese yuan is expected to appreciate against the US dollar, with a rise of over 4.2% in 2025, driven by factors such as a weaker dollar and concentrated settlement [1] - In 2025, the onshore yuan against the US dollar is projected to appreciate by over 4.2%, while the offshore yuan is expected to rise by over 4.8% [1] - Short-term forecasts suggest that the yuan will maintain a strong position, while medium to long-term expectations indicate a moderate appreciation trend [2][3] Group 2 - The chief economist at CITIC Securities anticipates that the yuan will run strong in the short term, despite potential volatility due to seasonal settlement effects at year-end [2] - The yuan's strength is supported by a significant trade surplus, but there are concerns about potential narrowing of this surplus in the future [2] - The central bank's exchange rate policy aims to stabilize expectations, as indicated by the shift in the central bank's middle rate quote compared to market expectations [2] Group 3 - The impact of yuan appreciation on asset prices is generally positive for the domestic stock market, particularly benefiting growth stocks, while the effect on the bond market is less significant [4] - Yuan appreciation is expected to attract foreign investment and create more room for monetary policy easing, which could further support the stock market [4] - Concerns about the yuan's appreciation affecting exports are mitigated by the nominal effective exchange rate remaining low, enhancing the competitiveness of Chinese goods abroad [5]