帮主郑重：铜的疯狂，油的落寞，金的摇摆——2025大宗商品“分裂之年”

Core Insights - The global commodity market in 2025 displayed a stark contrast, with copper prices soaring while oil prices plummeted, reflecting the complexities of the global economy [3][4]. Copper Market - Copper prices surged by 42% in 2025, marking the largest annual increase since the recovery from the 2009 financial crisis, driven by strong demand expectations in the electrification era and supply chain tensions [3]. - The robust performance of copper is seen as a positive indicator for future manufacturing activity, suggesting a degree of optimism in the market [3]. Oil Market - In contrast, international oil prices fell by 20% in 2025, the largest annual decline since 2020, primarily due to significant supply surplus despite geopolitical tensions [3]. - The weak oil prices highlight the fragile and uneven nature of the global economic recovery, with oversupply pressures outweighing demand recovery [3][4]. Gold and Silver Market - Gold and silver experienced significant volatility, achieving their largest annual gains in over 40 years, despite a decline in the last trading days of the year [4]. - The dual nature of precious metals is evident, serving as both a long-term safe haven against geopolitical risks and currency devaluation, while also being influenced by liquidity and speculative trading [4]. Investment Strategies for 2026 - For copper, while the long-term electrification narrative remains strong, the recent price surge suggests caution; investors should wait for market corrections before entering positions [5]. - Oil is expected to exhibit more range-bound trading unless there is a fundamental shift in supply-demand dynamics; it may be better suited for short-term trading strategies [5]. - Gold's high volatility indicates it is no longer a stable safe-haven asset; a small allocation is recommended for portfolio diversification, with strict stop-loss measures in place [5].