2026大势前瞻丨15位智库学者寄语“十五五”开局之年（二）

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the resilience of the global economy despite uncertainties, particularly due to unilateral tariffs from the U.S. and the need for countries to adapt strategically [2][3] - The global South has contributed nearly 80% to world economic growth, significantly outpacing developed economies, highlighting its importance in maintaining multilateral trade systems [3][7] - China's trade with the global South has seen a year-on-year increase of over 10%, indicating a strategic shift away from reliance on markets like the U.S. [7][8] Group 2 - China's proactive fiscal policies are set to support high-quality development as part of the 14th Five-Year Plan, focusing on expanding domestic demand and enhancing public services [5][10] - The emphasis on building a modern industrial system is crucial for improving productivity and fostering innovation, which is essential for achieving long-term economic goals [11][13] - The collaboration between fiscal and monetary policies is expected to enhance macroeconomic regulation, driving sustainable economic growth and increasing market vitality [13]