人民币2025年升值4.2%，2026年汇率如何走？继续涨但大幅升值可能性小

Core Viewpoint - The trend of the RMB exchange rate has become a central topic of concern as the global economic landscape continues to evolve in 2025, with a moderate annual appreciation setting the stage for further gains in 2026 [1] Group 1: RMB Exchange Rate Performance - On the last day of 2025, the onshore RMB to USD exchange rate closed at 6.994, appreciating significantly by 4.2% compared to 7.299 at the end of 2024 [2] - The appreciation of the RMB in 2025 is attributed to multiple factors, primarily the depreciation of the USD, which saw a decline of 9.4% as indicated by the USD index [2] - The controlled pace of RMB appreciation is likely a result of proactive adjustments by the People's Bank of China (PBOC) to mitigate the impact on export competitiveness [3] Group 2: Economic and Policy Implications - The PBOC aims to maintain a moderate appreciation of the RMB to avoid exacerbating cost pressures on Chinese exporters, especially in light of increased tariffs under the Trump administration's "reciprocal tariff" policy [3] - The moderate appreciation of the RMB in 2025 is expected to create broader space for future gains, supported by the Federal Reserve's shift towards a more accommodative monetary policy starting December 2025 [5] - The depreciation of the USD as a global reserve currency is anticipated to contribute to the relative appreciation of other currencies, including the RMB [5] Group 3: Future Outlook - There is a solid foundation for continued RMB appreciation in 2026, although significant gains are unlikely due to expected limited rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [7] - The RMB exchange rate is projected to fluctuate within a range of 6.7 to 7.1 throughout 2026, with potential for a brief dip to around 6.6 in extreme scenarios [9] - The accuracy of these predictions will depend on various intertwined factors, including economic fundamentals, policy adjustments, and international financial market dynamics [11]