制造业PMI时隔8个月重返扩张区间，供需两端均明显改善

Core Viewpoint - In December, China's manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rose by 0.9 percentage points to 50.1%, marking a return to the expansion zone after eight months [1] Manufacturing Sector Summary - The manufacturing production index in November was 51.7%, an increase of 1.7 percentage points from the previous month [1] - The new orders index rose to 50.8%, up by 1.6 percentage points [1] - The new export orders index increased by 1.4 percentage points to 49.0% [1] - Large enterprises had a PMI of 50.8%, up by 1.5 percentage points, while medium-sized enterprises had a PMI of 49.8%, up by 0.9 percentage points, and small enterprises had a PMI of 48.6%, down by 0.5 percentage points [1] Future Outlook - Economic factors such as fiscal and credit policies aiming for a "good start" in the new year and resilient exports are expected to keep the PMI at a high level in the first quarter [1] - The manufacturing sector is transitioning from "making the cake" to "cutting the cake," emphasizing the need for technological advancements to enhance competitiveness [3] - Four key factors will influence the PMI trend towards 2026: domestic growth policies, strong market demand in high-tech manufacturing, the impact of high tariffs on global trade, and ongoing adjustments in the real estate market [3][4] - The macroeconomic environment is expected to maintain a "strong supply, weak demand" scenario, with the PMI likely remaining below 50% for most of the time [3] Non-Manufacturing Sector Summary - In December, the non-manufacturing PMI recorded 50.2%, an increase of 0.7 percentage points from the previous month [5] - The construction business activity index was 52.8%, up by 3.2 percentage points, while the services business activity index was 49.7%, up by 0.2 percentage points [6] - Certain service sectors, such as telecommunications and financial services, showed strong activity indices above 60.0%, while retail and catering sectors remained below the critical point [6]