Group 1 - Analysts warn that if the next Federal Reserve Chair implements more significant interest rate cuts as expected, the US dollar may weaken further [2] - The biggest factor affecting the dollar in Q1 2026 will be the Federal Reserve, particularly the identity of the next chair after Jerome Powell's term ends in May 2026 [2] - Market expectations indicate that the US will likely see at least two interest rate cuts in 2026, leading to a divergence in monetary policy compared to other developed economies, which diminishes the dollar's attractiveness [2] Group 2 - The euro has strengthened significantly against the dollar, primarily due to moderate inflation in the Eurozone and an impending wave of defense spending, which has led to minimal bets on rate cuts in the Eurozone [2] - Interest rate traders anticipate that central banks in Canada, Sweden, and Australia will raise rates, contrasting with the US outlook [2] - Data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) shows that while there was a brief bullish position on the dollar, it quickly reverted to a dominant bearish stance since April 2025 [2]
美元创八年最差年度表现美联储主席人选或成2026年走势关键
Sou Hu Cai Jing·2026-01-01 05:39