突发！多国央行“新年第一枪”，全球市场2026年开门迎巨震？

Core Viewpoint - The global financial markets experienced significant volatility at the start of 2026 due to divergent monetary policies from major central banks, highlighting the fragility of the global economic recovery and signaling a new cycle of high volatility and intense market competition [2] Group 1: Central Bank Policies - The Federal Reserve paused interest rate cuts, maintaining the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75%, with expectations of only 1-2 rate cuts in 2026 despite a rising unemployment rate of 4.1% and core PCE inflation above 2.5% [2] - The European Central Bank unexpectedly raised its 2026 economic growth forecast to 1.2% and signaled potential interest rate hikes due to persistent inflation, with December CPI at 2.1% and core CPI stable at 2.4% [2] - The Bank of Japan raised interest rates by 25 basis points to 0.75%, marking the end of its negative interest rate policy, despite inflation remaining below the 2% target [2] Group 2: Market Reactions - The dollar weakened due to the Fed's pause on rate cuts, while geopolitical tensions in the Middle East drove safe-haven investments into gold and U.S. Treasuries, with gold futures peaking at $2150 per ounce [2] - Tech stocks surged, particularly AI chipmakers like Nvidia and AMD, but concerns over sustainable demand arose due to rising GPU prices, leading to significant volatility in the Nasdaq index [2] - Emerging markets showed divergence, with Goldman Sachs upgrading Chinese stocks to "overweight" while Latin American countries faced high inflation and maintained elevated interest rates, causing capital to flow towards Japan and Europe [2] Group 3: Economic Challenges - The IMF downgraded its 2026 global economic growth forecast from 3.1% to 2.8% due to persistent inflation and slowing growth, particularly in the U.S. and Europe [2] - The U.S. government debt surpassed $35 trillion, with interest payments exceeding defense spending, while Japan's debt-to-GDP ratio reached 200% amid rising interest rates [2] - Geopolitical conflicts and financial sanctions, particularly in the Middle East, pose risks to global energy supply chains and could further increase inflation by 3-5 percentage points [2] Group 4: Future Outlook - The U.S. stock market may continue to be led by tech giants, but caution is advised regarding valuation bubbles, with the S&P 500 forward P/E ratio at 21.5 times [2] - U.S. Treasuries may see short-term support from safe-haven demand, while European bond spreads narrow, with Italian 10-year yields falling below 3% [2] - Gold remains a long-term bullish asset, while copper could benefit from investments in AI infrastructure and grid development [2] - The yen may strengthen in the short term, but the Bank of Japan's rate hike capacity is limited, while the euro is expected to appreciate mid-term, contingent on eurozone debt risks [2]