Jefferies Urges Selectivity on Duolingo (DUOL) as AI Disintermediation Risks and High Spending Threaten 2026 Valuations

Core Insights - Duolingo Inc. is considered one of the best NASDAQ stocks to buy in 2026, with Jefferies raising its price target to $220 from $210 while maintaining a Hold rating [1] - DA Davidson lowered its price target on Duolingo to $205 from $220, maintaining a Neutral rating, despite improvements in active user numbers [2] - Concerns regarding AI disintermediation and high spending on growth could impact stock valuations in the future [1][3] User Growth and Market Expansion - Duolingo reported a 34% year-over-year increase in daily active users (DAU) in Q3 2025, with projections of nearly $1.2 billion in bookings for the full year, reflecting a 33% annual growth rate [3] - The company's expansion into Asia has been significant, with China becoming its second-largest market in terms of daily active users [3] - Despite positive growth, Duolingo anticipates a deceleration in DAU growth during Q4, with year-over-year growth of approximately 30% compared to 34% in Q3 [5] Product Diversification - A key factor in Duolingo's recent success is its diversification beyond language learning, particularly with the introduction of a chess course that has become the fastest-growing offering [4] - The chess content has attracted millions of users and has retention rates slightly higher than the core language products [4] - Duolingo is enhancing user engagement by rolling out a Player-vs-Player feature, currently available to 50% of iOS users, with an Android release expected soon [4]