美论坛：若中国不再向美国出售任何东西，中国还能继续繁荣吗？

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the evolving economic relationship between China and the United States, highlighting China's decreasing reliance on the U.S. market and its growing trade partnerships with other regions, while also emphasizing the challenges faced by the U.S. due to its dependence on Chinese manufacturing and resources [2][4][9]. Group 1: Trade Dynamics - In 2025, U.S.-China trade tensions have escalated, with U.S. tariffs leading to a significant drop in bilateral trade, with China's exports to the U.S. falling by 18.9% to $385.9 billion and imports decreasing as well [4][5]. - China's total trade value reached $5.75 trillion in the first eleven months, with a record surplus of over $1 trillion, indicating a shift in export reliance from the U.S. to other regions such as ASEAN, EU, and Latin America [5][10]. - The share of U.S. exports in China's total exports has decreased from 20% in 2015-2018 to 11.4% in the current year, reflecting a diversification of China's trade partnerships [5][10]. Group 2: Manufacturing Strength - China's manufacturing sector remains robust, accounting for 31.6% of global manufacturing value added, with a total of $4.865 trillion, covering a wide range of industries [7][12]. - High-tech manufacturing is growing rapidly, with exports of electromechanical products exceeding 60% in the first three quarters, and companies like BYD reporting a 313.4% increase in passenger car exports [7][12]. - China has become a leader in various industrial categories, with over 220 products produced at the highest global levels, showcasing both quantity and quality improvements in manufacturing [7][12]. Group 3: U.S. Dependency on China - The U.S. is significantly dependent on China for critical resources, particularly rare earth elements, with 90% of global rare earth processing occurring in China, which poses challenges for U.S. defense industries [9][12]. - Despite efforts to build alternative supply chains, U.S. companies acknowledge their reliance on Chinese manufacturing, as tariffs and trade uncertainties create operational challenges [9][12]. - The U.S. is projected to face a 13.2% decline in exports to China, indicating the economic repercussions of the ongoing trade conflict [9][10]. Group 4: Future Outlook - China's economic resilience is highlighted by its ability to maintain growth despite trade disruptions, with a focus on domestic consumption and the "dual circulation" strategy, which emphasizes internal demand [10][12]. - The article suggests that if China were to halt exports to the U.S., it would not significantly impact its economy, while the U.S. would face severe consequences, including inflation and supply shortages [9][10]. - Long-term projections indicate that China's manufacturing sector will continue to evolve, with significant advancements in green technologies and digitalization, positioning it as a key player in the global economy [18][20].