9年最大跌幅：2025年，特朗普上任第一年，美元下跌8%！2026年情况会有好转吗？

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights that the US dollar experienced its largest annual decline in nine years, dropping by 8% in 2025, which may signal the end of a prolonged strong dollar period [1][5][18] - The decline in the dollar is attributed to three main factors: a weak US economic fundamental, uncertainty in Federal Reserve policies, and a decreasing global trust in the dollar as a reserve currency [7][8][11][13] Group 2 - The weak US economy is evidenced by a rising unemployment rate, which reached 4.6% in November 2025, the highest level since October 2021 [8][9] - The Federal Reserve's response to economic challenges included three interest rate cuts totaling 75 basis points, reducing the dollar's "interest attractiveness" [9][10] - The uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve's future policies, especially with a potential new chairperson expected to favor further rate cuts, has led to a loss of confidence in the dollar [11][12] Group 3 - The decline in the dollar has mixed implications for individuals and businesses: while it may lower costs for studying abroad and purchasing imported goods, it could also reduce yields on dollar-denominated investments [15][18] - For businesses, those with dollar-denominated debts may benefit from lower costs, while exporters, particularly in labor-intensive sectors, may face challenges due to rising prices of their goods in dollar terms [15][18] Group 4 - Predictions for 2026 suggest a higher probability of continued dollar weakness, with potential further declines of around 3% by year-end, driven by ongoing Fed rate cuts and contrasting monetary policies in other economies [15][16] - However, there is a possibility of a rebound if US inflation rises or economic data improves, particularly around key Federal Reserve meetings [16][18]