Core Viewpoint - The recently released third-quarter economic growth data in the U.S. significantly exceeded market expectations, with a year-on-year GDP growth rate of 4.3%, surpassing the previous quarter's 3.8% and the economists' forecast of 3.3% [1] Group 1: Economic Performance - The primary drivers of the strong economic performance are consumer spending and federal spending growth [1] - The unexpected growth may be influenced by technical factors, such as a narrowing trade deficit related to tariff policies and potential statistical impacts from increased federal spending [5] Group 2: Analyst Perspectives - Moody's Chief Economist Mark Zandi expressed caution, suggesting that the official data may overstate the actual economic growth strength, with a potential underlying growth rate closer to 2% [3] - Zandi noted that the current growth rate, while acceptable, is insufficient to create enough job opportunities to address the slowly rising unemployment rate [3] - There is a risk of downward adjustments to the current growth data due to the delayed release caused by a prior government shutdown, which may have affected statistical accuracy [5] Group 3: Future Outlook - Despite the optimistic data, some economists remain skeptical about the underlying health of the U.S. economy, warning of potential recession risks [8] - Analysts suggest that the current strong quarterly data raises questions about its sustainability and statistical accuracy, indicating a need for more comprehensive data to assess the true trajectory and potential challenges of the U.S. economy [8]
布米普特拉北京投资基金管理有限公司：美国三季度GDP增速超预期 但可持续性遭质疑
Sou Hu Cai Jing·2026-01-01 14:59