祛魅之年：2026科技凉点展望

Group 1 - The core sentiment for 2026 is that the technology industry will enter a digestion phase of existing capabilities, moving away from the rapid conceptual advancements seen in previous years [1][30] - The AI and computing market is expected to experience a significant slowdown in growth, with the increase in the intelligent computing market projected to drop from nearly 80% in 2025 to about 38% in 2026 [4][6] - The rise of domestic AI computing capabilities, such as Huawei's Ascend and Kunlun chips, is expected to alleviate the previous supply shortages and challenge the dominance of Nvidia [6][7] Group 2 - The AI algorithm and model companies are facing challenges in establishing sustainable business models, with many still in the money-burning phase and struggling to find a viable revenue stream [12][14] - The consumer market for AI products is becoming increasingly competitive, with major internet companies vying for market share, leading to a potential decline in user engagement and revenue [13][16] - The focus for AI terminals in 2026 will shift towards niche markets, targeting specific user needs rather than attempting to appeal to the mass market [17][19] Group 3 - The cloud service industry is facing difficulties, with many companies unable to cover costs due to a lack of demand for comprehensive cloud solutions, leading to a concentration of market power among firms with full-stack capabilities [21][23] - The integration of AI and communication technologies is expected to slow down, as existing network capabilities are often sufficient for current AI applications, limiting the need for new infrastructure [25][27] - The market for communication services is shifting from large-scale projects to smaller, more manageable upgrades for SMEs, creating opportunities for companies that can provide reliable and cost-effective solutions [26][27]