加纳石油收入骤降

Core Insights - Ghana's oil revenue is projected to plummet by 56% in the first half of 2025, primarily due to declining production and falling global oil prices, threatening fiscal stability [1] - The report from the Public Interest and Accountability Committee (PIAC) indicates that oil revenue will drop to $370.3 million, down from $840.8 million in the same period of 2024, marking the lowest mid-year revenue since 2022 [1] Group 1: Production Decline - Crude oil production is expected to decrease by nearly 26% to 18.42 million barrels by June 2025, compared to 24.86 million barrels in the first half of 2024 [1] - The Jubilee oil field, which began production in December 2010, has seen the most significant decline, with output dropping by 32.8% to 11.02 million barrels, and daily production falling from 90,755 barrels to 60,898 barrels [2] - The Tweneboa Enyenra Ntomme (TEN) oil field's production decreased by 14% from 3.45 million barrels to 2.97 million barrels, with daily output declining from 19,065 barrels to 16,420 barrels [2] - The Sankofa Gye Nyame oil field experienced the smallest decline at 11.6%, with production falling from 5 million barrels to 4.42 million barrels, and daily output decreasing from 27,600 barrels to 24,463 barrels [2] Group 2: Revenue Composition - In the first half of 2025, the composition of oil revenue includes $178.48 million from Carry-Over and Additional Participating Interests (CAPI), accounting for 48% of total revenue; $148.75 million from corporate income tax, making up 40%; and $40.15 million from royalties, approximately 10.8% of total revenue [3] - Interest income from the oil holding fund was $2.1 million, while ground lease income was only $863,000, representing less than 1% of total revenue [3] - The reliance on upstream production taxes and profit-sharing rather than direct extraction fees highlights a structural vulnerability in Ghana's oil sector [3] Group 3: Industry Challenges and Responses - Since 2018, Ghana has not signed any new oil agreements, raising structural risks for the long-term viability of the industry [3] - As of June 2025, there are 13 active oil agreements in Ghana, but only the Jubilee, TEN, and Sankofa Gye Nyame fields are currently in production [3] - The government has initiated measures to address the production crisis, including significant upstream investments starting in 2026, and has signed memorandums of understanding with Tullow Oil, Kosmos Energy, PetroSA, and GNPC to extend production licenses for Jubilee and TEN fields until 2040 [3]