This Is Tesla’s Price Prediction Heading Into 2026

Core Insights - Tesla shares have experienced a pullback from their all-time high of nearly $499, reflecting a 12.5% gain for the year, amid concerns about sales and a projected 15% decline in fourth-quarter deliveries [1][6] Group 1: Sales and Deliveries - U.S. deliveries for the October to December quarter are projected at approximately 126,000 vehicles, representing a decline of over 22% year-over-year [4][7] - Analyst estimates for fourth-quarter deliveries indicate a more pessimistic outlook compared to previous forecasts, highlighting concerns about softer EV demand and competition [1][3] Group 2: Market Sentiment and Predictions - Prediction markets suggest a 64% probability that Tesla's stock will close between $450 and $475 per share by the end of 2025, indicating mixed trader sentiment [7] - Wall Street analysts have a divided view on Tesla, with a consensus 12-month price target averaging around $399 per share, suggesting the stock may be overvalued by 12% [6] Group 3: Broader Business Considerations - Tesla's performance may increasingly be evaluated based on its other business segments, such as AI, energy storage, and robotics, rather than solely on its automotive sales [5]