印度1亿烟民新年噩耗，香烟每千支最高加税660元，印度烟草股ITC重挫10%

Core Viewpoint - The Indian government has announced a significant increase in tobacco taxes, which is expected to impact the tobacco industry negatively, particularly affecting major companies like ITC and Godfrey Phillips India [1][2][4]. Group 1: Taxation Impact - Starting February 1, a new consumption tax on cigarettes will range from 2,050 to 8,500 rupees per thousand cigarettes, depending on length [1]. - Analysts from Jefferies indicate that the introduction of an additional national disaster emergency tax could raise taxes on tobacco products by over 30% [2]. - The new tax will be added on top of the existing 40% Goods and Services Tax (GST), which is also set to take effect on February 1 [4]. Group 2: Cost and Pricing Pressure - The new tax is projected to increase the overall cost of 75-85 mm cigarettes by 22%-28%, with potential price hikes of 2 to 3 rupees per cigarette for products over 75 mm in length [4]. - Jefferies analysts suggest that ITC may need to raise prices by at least 15% to pass on the tax impact to consumers, with actual price increases potentially being higher [4]. Group 3: Market Reaction - Following the announcement, ITC's stock fell by 9.7%, reaching its lowest level since February 2023, while Godfrey Phillips India saw a decline of over 17% [2]. - Both companies experienced trading volumes exceeding 20 times their three-month average [4]. Group 4: Government's Public Health Strategy - The Indian government aims to keep cigarette prices high as a strategy to deter usage and mitigate the economic burden of tobacco-related diseases, which is estimated to exceed 2.4 trillion rupees annually [8]. - The government believes that higher taxes on tobacco products will not encourage smuggling or the growth of the gray market [9].