“慢牛”领跑！估值驱动转向盈利驱动

Group 1 - The A-share market is expected to shift from valuation-driven to profit-driven, exhibiting a "slow bull" characteristic in 2026 [2][3] - Investors are advised to focus on four major directions: technology innovation, advanced manufacturing, upstream cycles, and domestic consumption [2][8] - Technology investment difficulty in 2026 will be greater than in 2025, requiring precise grasp of industry rhythms and deep stock selection for excess returns [11] Group 2 - The macroeconomic policy is expected to support resilient growth and structural upgrades, with a GDP growth target of around 5% for 2026 [5][6] - Manufacturing investment is anticipated to receive support from strong export resilience and continued policy backing for advanced manufacturing [5][6] - The focus on expanding domestic demand is crucial for stabilizing growth, with measures including increased consumption subsidies and support for service industries [5][6] Group 3 - A-share earnings are expected to enter a new phase of slow recovery in 2026, driven by technology manufacturing, inventory replenishment, and profit margin recovery [7][9] - The investment strategy should focus on cyclical recovery and technological self-reliance, with an emphasis on sectors like non-ferrous metals, machinery, and social services [7][8] Group 4 - The market is likely to see a convergence of technology and value styles, with structural opportunities emerging in value sectors as the economy stabilizes [12] - The focus on "outbound + technology" is expected to dominate market trends, particularly in the AI industry chain and resource sectors [13] Group 5 - The overall market is anticipated to be balanced between growth and value, with significant opportunities in both large-cap and small-cap stocks [14][16] - The recovery in earnings and return on equity (ROE) levels is expected to support stock market performance, with long-term funds increasingly entering the market [16]