“吨亏破千”？PDH行业停工潮将至？这些品种受到影响→

Core Viewpoint - The propane dehydrogenation (PDH) industry is experiencing significant losses, with profits dropping to around -1400 yuan/ton, marking the lowest level in nearly six years. There are expectations of widespread shutdowns in the PDH industry this month, raising concerns about the impact on downstream products like propylene, polypropylene (PP), and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) [1][2]. Industry Profit Trends - The PDH industry's profit trajectory showed a clear "rise and fall" pattern last year, peaking in July and August due to low raw material prices and a rebound in downstream PP prices. However, since mid-October, profits have been in decline, leading to significant losses [1]. - The continuous loss in the PDH industry is primarily attributed to weakening PP prices, with supply outpacing demand as PP production capacity is expected to grow by 12% in 2025 and around 10% in 2026, while actual demand growth is only projected at 4%-5% [1][2]. Raw Material Pressure - The pressure on raw materials is increasing, with seasonal purchasing expectations in India and Japan driving up import propane prices. Domestic deep processing enterprises report high spot price discounts on propane, further squeezing PDH industry profit margins. Additionally, the current demand for PP is weak, limiting price recovery potential [2]. Impact on Related Products LPG - LPG demand is relatively stable, but its price is influenced by the PDH industry's demand. Since November, LPG's fundamentals have shown a "strong reality, weak expectation" pattern, with prices remaining firm. However, if PDH operations reduce or shut down, LPG's strong market position may weaken [4]. - Long-term projections indicate that LPG production capacity in the U.S. and the Middle East will continue to increase, leading to potential downward pressure on LPG prices if PDH operations decline [4]. PP - As the core downstream product of PDH, PP prices have been declining for three consecutive months since September due to supply pressures. While expectations of reduced PDH operations may provide short-term support for PP prices, high inventory levels and upcoming new production capacity in 2026 suggest that supply pressures will persist [5]. Propylene - Propylene, as a direct downstream product of PDH, will see a significant supply reduction if PDH operations shut down, potentially providing price support. However, the current profitability of PP powder is under pressure, which may limit propylene's price growth [6]. Trading Opportunities - Market participants should focus on the actual shutdown situation of PDH facilities in January. If the number of shutdowns increases, it could significantly support PP and propylene prices. Conversely, if shutdowns are fewer than expected, related products may face downward pressure [8]. - Long-term variables to monitor include domestic macro policy releases and the impact of new production capacity planned for 2026, which could affect the supply-demand balance for PP and propylene [8].