创金合信基金魏凤春：“盈利驱动”接棒 看好新质生产力和中游制造

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is expected to continue its upward trend in 2026, driven by a shift in market logic towards profit-driven growth, with a focus on new productive forces and midstream manufacturing [5][6]. Market Performance in 2025 - In 2025, the A-share market showed a strong performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising nearly 20% and the ChiNext Index increasing by approximately 50% [5]. - The technology growth stocks led the market, significantly outperforming blue-chip indices like the Shanghai 50 and CSI 300 [5]. Structural Changes in Market Dynamics - The structural divergence in the market was attributed to three main factors: a shift towards technology growth, a consensus narrative around tech innovation, and policy guidance that favored sectors with research barriers and growth potential [5][6]. - The market's focus shifted from liquidity-driven expectations to profit realization, with performance certainty becoming the core basis for valuation [6]. Investment Opportunities for 2026 - Investment strategies should focus on sectors benefiting from cyclical resonance, particularly in new productive forces (electronics, high-end equipment) and midstream manufacturing [6]. - The approach should follow the logic of "offensive relies on profit, defensive relies on liquidity," with a focus on dividend-paying state-owned enterprises as a base [6]. Consumer Sector Outlook - The consumer sector is expected to experience a "structural rise" in 2026 rather than a full recovery, with new consumption trends emerging as the main line of growth [7][8]. - Traditional consumption sectors, such as high-end liquor, may see a rebound due to valuation recovery rather than a significant improvement in end-demand [8]. Asset Allocation Strategy - The recommended asset allocation strategy emphasizes "offensive relies on profit, defensive relies on liquidity, and structural focus on divergence" [9]. - In the stock market, priority should be given to new productive forces and cyclical goods benefiting from PPI recovery, while maintaining low-volatility dividend assets as a foundation [9]. - For bonds, a strategy focusing on low volatility and narrow fluctuations is advised, with an emphasis on short-term high-rated credit bonds [9]. - Gold is suggested as a strategic allocation to hedge against extreme risks, supported by geopolitical risks and expectations of Federal Reserve easing [9].