张尧浠：新年先预温蓄力，金价偏筑底调整前景仍看涨

Core Viewpoint - The gold market experienced fluctuations and a decline due to profit-taking pressures at year-end, with the CME raising margin requirements for precious metals futures for the second time in a week, alongside lower-than-expected initial jobless claims in the U.S. [1][4] Price Movements - On December 31, 2025, gold opened at $4,338.29, reached a high of $4,372.93, a low of $4,274.54, and closed at $4,314.72, resulting in a daily decline of $23.57 or 0.54% [2]. Market Outlook - Despite recent declines, there is a potential for a rebound in gold prices, with expectations of a bullish trend if prices stabilize above $4,400. However, caution is advised as the weekly chart shows weakness, indicating possible further declines before a recovery [4][10]. - The overall performance of precious metals in 2025 was strong, with gold rising approximately 64%, silver up 147%, platinum increasing by 128%, and palladium by 77%, marking the best annual performance since 1979 [4]. Future Projections - Factors supporting the gold market in 2024 and 2025 include potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, geopolitical tensions, central bank purchases, and ETF inflows. These factors are expected to continue into 2026, with predictions of three unexpected rate cuts in the first half of 2026, potentially driving gold prices up by about 30% [6]. - Technical analysis suggests that if gold prices maintain strength in January, a bullish trend could lead to targets of $5,500 to $6,000. Conversely, a close below $4,300 could indicate a significant correction [8]. Technical Analysis - On a monthly level, gold prices showed a strong rise in December but faced a notable pullback, indicating a risk of larger corrections to the $4,000-$3,900 range or lower. The weekly chart suggests a potential decline towards the 10-week moving average at $4,230 or lower [8]. - Daily analysis indicates that while gold opened strong, it remains under pressure from the $4,400 resistance level, with risks of a pullback before any significant upward movement [10]. Support and Resistance Levels - For gold, key support levels are at $4,310 and $4,295, while resistance levels are at $4,380 and $4,400. For silver, support is at $71.30 and $70.20, with resistance at $74.30 and $75.60 [11].