AI支出、企业盈利、鸽派美联储！美股“四连阳”三大支柱缺一不可

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. stock market ended 2025 with a double-digit percentage increase for the third consecutive year, driven by optimism around AI, declining interest rates, and concerns about economic recession [1] Group 1: Market Performance and Projections - The S&P 500 index rose over 16% in 2025, following increases of 23% in 2024 and 24% in 2023 [1] - Market strategists expect continued strong performance in 2026, with some projecting over 10% gains for the S&P 500 index, including a target of 8000 points from Deutsche Bank, indicating a potential increase of about 17% [1] - CFRA's Chief Investment Strategist, Sam Stovall, suggests that for another year of strong double-digit returns, "all aspects must be running at full speed," with a target price of 7400 points for the end of 2026, representing an 8% increase from current levels [1] Group 2: Corporate Earnings and AI Support - Corporate earnings growth is expected to be a key factor in market performance, with S&P 500 companies projected to grow earnings by over 15% in 2026, following a 13% increase in 2025 [4] - Earnings growth is anticipated to be driven by a broader range of companies rather than just a few tech giants, supported by fiscal stimulus and loose monetary policy [4] - The profit growth rate for the "Magnificent Seven" tech companies is expected to be 23% in 2026, compared to 13% for the remaining companies in the S&P 500 [4] Group 3: Economic Conditions and Federal Reserve Policy - A key factor for a strong market year is a moderate economic slowdown that allows inflation to decrease and paves the way for further interest rate cuts, without leading to a recession [6] - Investors expect the Federal Reserve to cut rates by a total of 175 basis points in 2024 and 2025, with at least two additional cuts of 25 basis points each in 2026 [6] - The potential appointment of a more dovish Federal Reserve Chair by President Trump in early 2026 is being closely monitored by investors [6] Group 4: Historical Context and Political Factors - Historical data shows mixed signals for potential returns in 2026, with an average increase of 12.8% in the fourth year of bull markets since 1950, although midterm election years typically see lower performance, averaging only 3.8% [7] - The U.S.-China relationship remains a significant factor that could influence market trends in 2026, with potential breakthroughs being a positive catalyst not fully priced in by the market [7]