2026资本市场有哪些“预期差”值得重视？

Group 1 - The A-share market is expected to recover in 2025 after three years of adjustment, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising approximately 18.41% and the STAR Market and ChiNext Indexes increasing by 46.30% and 49.57% respectively [1] - The unique aspect of this recovery is that it is driven by a profound change in risk appetite at the institutional level rather than by profit improvement or liquidity [1] - Looking ahead to 2026, the capital market may still have "expectation differences" based on policy logic and market dynamics [1] Group 2 - The U.S.-China relationship may be influenced by Trump's political self-rescue strategy, which could exacerbate the "East rises, West declines" trend, with two potential windows for easing [2][5] - The first window for easing could occur if high-level visits happen early in the year, while the second window may arise as the midterm elections approach in September, potentially leading to a compromise in trade orders [5] - During the easing phases, A-share technology, Hong Kong internet stocks, and RMB assets may benefit, while defensive sectors like military, key materials, and gold may perform better during pressured phases [5] Group 3 - The Federal Reserve's path to easing may see a speculative phase in early 2026, with a potential "super-easing" window in the third quarter [6][9] - The nomination of a new Fed chair in May 2026 will be a critical turning point for market liquidity [6] - The market may react to the nomination speculation, leading to an early valuation recovery for high-elasticity assets [6] Group 4 - Fiscal policy in 2026 may see a marginal increase in the deficit rate, but the overall fiscal effort is expected to converge, focusing on strategic areas rather than traditional infrastructure [10] - Domestic monetary policy will face dual constraints, needing to maintain liquidity while keeping the RMB relatively strong [10] - The asset allocation strategy will likely favor high-dividend blue-chip stocks and policy-supported core assets due to limited interest rate decline space [10][14] Group 5 - The A-share market is expected to be supported by capital market policies, while the Hong Kong market may benefit more from economic policies [11][12] - The tightening of IPO approvals and regulations on share reductions will create a "healthy" slow bull framework for the A-share market [12] - The A-share market is likely to outperform the Hong Kong market in the first half of 2026 due to these supportive measures [12] Group 6 - The pace of retail investor entry into the market is expected to remain slow, transitioning from concentrated entry to gradual accumulation [13] - Factors such as the prolonged stabilization of real estate prices and cautious income expectations will contribute to this slow entry [13] - Historical examples suggest that significant retail investment requires both institutional benefits and clear profit expectations [13] Group 7 - The global technology sector is expected to maintain an upward trend, with increased volatility and a shift from broad AI growth to more differentiated performance [15][19] - The Nasdaq 100 index is projected to experience overall upward movement, but with amplified volatility [15] - The focus will shift to companies that can convert capital expenditures into cash flow rather than those driven by narrative [15] Group 8 - The domestic AI investment logic is shifting towards application and energy materials, with a focus on "benchmarking" against U.S. advancements [20][21] - The A-share technology sector is expected to expand, with significant growth in humanoid robots and edge AI applications [21] - The healthcare sector may also benefit from AI advancements, particularly in drug development and clinical data processing [21] Group 9 - The "anti-involution" strategy is evolving into a national competitive advantage, focusing on enhancing global bargaining power through industry consolidation [22][23] - Strategic metals and renewable energy sectors are expected to benefit from supply-side reforms and increased demand due to geopolitical factors [23] Group 10 - Gold prices are anticipated to rise due to geopolitical risks and declining monetary credit, with a focus on a gradual upward trend rather than a sharp increase [26][29] - The demand for copper and other strategic resources is expected to grow due to the needs of new energy vehicles and AI data centers [29]