「钴奶奶」价格狂飙190%，产业链加速「去钴化」

Core Viewpoint - The suspension of all artisanal cobalt mining activities in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) has significantly impacted cobalt prices, which are expected to rise in 2025 due to supply constraints and policy restrictions [1][2]. Group 1: Cobalt Price Trends - As of December 31, 2025, the average price of cobalt in China reached 490,000 yuan per ton, marking a 190% increase since the beginning of 2025 [1]. - The supply situation has shifted from structural surplus to persistent shortage since the DRC implemented a cobalt export ban in February 2025, with a confirmed export quota of 96,600 tons per year for 2026-2027, a reduction of over 50% compared to 220,000 tons in 2024 [1][2]. Group 2: Lithium Cobalt and Battery Material Prices - Prices for lithium carbonate and cobalt sulfate have also surged since 2025, with increases of over 150% and 248% respectively, driven by rising costs of cobalt [2]. - Cobalt sulfate prices have led to a 30% increase in cobalt lithium battery prices since 2025, particularly affecting mid-nickel materials due to their high cobalt sulfate content [4]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Shifts - The market is experiencing a structural shortage of cobalt, but this may be alleviated by increased recycling rates [2]. - The share of mid-nickel materials is declining as manufacturers shift towards high-nickel materials in response to rising cobalt prices, accelerating the industry's "de-cobaltization" trend [4][10]. Group 4: Company Performance and Production - In the first half of 2025, the revenue from cobalt lithium business for companies like Dingsheng Technology increased by 39.21% year-on-year to 330 million yuan, with a gross margin rise of 5.82% to 8.19% [5]. - Xiamen Tungsten New Energy reported a 45.38% year-on-year increase in cobalt lithium sales, maintaining high production capacity utilization [6]. Group 5: Future Market Expectations - The global 3C consumer electronics market is expected to enter a "volume reduction and price increase" adjustment cycle in 2026, with potential declines in demand for cobalt lithium materials [9]. - The demand for cobalt lithium is projected to stabilize at around 110,000 tons, with a slight expected decrease of approximately 0.7% [9]. Group 6: Industry Transition to Alternative Materials - The lithium battery industry is actively pursuing "de-cobaltization" strategies, focusing on high-nickel low-cobalt and iron phosphate materials to reduce costs [10]. - The market share of iron phosphate batteries is expected to reach 72% by 2030, while the demand for ternary batteries may decrease to 21% [13].