Worried About an AI Bubble? Buy This Tech Stock in 2026.

Core Viewpoint - The article suggests that despite skepticism surrounding AI investments, Apple remains a strong stock option due to its business model and performance, which are less dependent on AI compared to other tech companies [1][5]. Group 1: AI Market Context - The AI boom has significantly influenced stock market gains, with AI-related stocks contributing to 75% of S&P 500 returns since the launch of ChatGPT in November 2022 [2]. - Major tech companies are investing heavily in AI infrastructure, with hundreds of billions of dollars allocated to high-powered chips and data centers [2]. - Recent skepticism has emerged regarding the profitability of AI investments, highlighted by an MIT study indicating that 95% of generative AI projects failed to deliver measurable ROI [3][4]. Group 2: Apple's Position - Apple is not categorized as an "AI company" like Oracle or Nvidia, as it spends less on AI and does not rely on AI's future potential for its business model [6][7]. - The company has avoided the costly AI arms race, focusing instead on its core business of selling devices [8]. - Apple's stock has increased by approximately 33% over the past six months, outperforming the S&P 500 and major AI stocks [9]. Group 3: Financial Performance - In fiscal year 2025, Apple achieved record revenue of $416 billion, with a fourth-quarter revenue of $102.5 billion, marking an 8% year-over-year increase [11]. - iPhone revenue rose by 6% year-over-year, setting a new record for the September-ended quarter [11]. - Services revenue grew by 15% year-over-year, with a gross margin of about 75%, indicating a shift towards higher-margin digital services [12][13]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Apple anticipates 10%-12% revenue growth in Q1 2026, driven by double-digit growth in iPhone sales during the holiday season [14]. - Analysts have raised EPS estimates for Apple to $2.67 for the current quarter, reflecting positive investor sentiment [14]. - Despite a price-to-earnings ratio of 34, Apple may appear more attractive compared to high-priced AI stocks if AI investments do not yield quick returns [15]. - Apple is well-positioned for sustained profitability, regardless of the potential AI bubble [16].