2025年最后一天，美联储悄悄送上“创纪录”跨年礼物

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's recent liquidity injection of $16 billion through overnight repurchase agreements signals underlying pressures in the financial system, indicating a potential liquidity crisis despite a seemingly calm market [1][3][5]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Operations - On December 31, 2025, the Federal Reserve injected $16 billion into the banking system, bringing the total liquidity injected through repurchase operations in December to $40.32 billion, marking the second-largest liquidity operation since the COVID-19 crisis [3]. - The use of overnight repurchase agreements serves as a mechanism for the Federal Reserve to maintain control over short-term interest rates and prevent sudden liquidity shortages from causing interest rates to spike [5][7]. Group 2: Market Signals and Pressures - Key pressure signals include the secured overnight financing rate, which was at 3.77% on December 29, exceeding the interest rate paid on reserves by 12 basis points, indicating a liquidity shortage [7]. - Structural pressures arise from the Federal Reserve's quantitative tightening since 2022 and the U.S. Treasury's large-scale issuance of government bonds to address fiscal deficits, creating a risk of blockage in the monetary market [7]. Group 3: Internal Disagreements and Strategies - Within the Federal Reserve, there are differing opinions on how to respond to liquidity pressures, with some advocating for a standing repo facility while others prefer direct bond purchases to ensure market liquidity [9]. - The current approach of direct bond purchases is seen as necessary due to a perceived stigma around institutions seeking help from the Federal Reserve, leading to a more aggressive liquidity provision strategy [9]. Group 4: Future Outlook and Policy Shifts - The Federal Reserve has indicated plans for a "non-quantitative easing" reserve management strategy, potentially purchasing up to $220 billion in government bonds over the next 12 months, averaging about $40 billion per month [11]. - This shift in policy suggests a recalibration of monetary policy, with expectations that the Federal Reserve may increase its bond purchasing to approximately $45 billion per month starting January 2026 [11]. Group 5: Broader Economic Implications - The liquidity increase occurs in a context where the Federal Reserve's December meeting minutes show a consensus that further rate cuts depend on sustained inflation decline, with market expectations for the next rate cut pushed to at least March 2026 [13]. - The ongoing liquidity provision supports risk assets but is counterbalanced by high interest rates that may suppress economic growth, creating a complex dynamic that will influence global capital flows and individual investments [14][16].