2025年最后一天，美联储创纪录“放水”160亿美元！

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve conducted a significant liquidity injection of $16 billion through an overnight repurchase operation on December 30, marking the second-largest liquidity injection since the pandemic [1][3] - The December FOMC meeting minutes revealed notable internal disagreements among Fed officials, casting uncertainty on the monetary policy direction for 2026 [1][8] Group 1: Record Operations - In December 2025, the Federal Reserve purchased a total of $40.32 billion in government bonds through overnight repurchase operations, with the December 30 operation being particularly significant [3] - The Fed's liquidity support plan, termed "Reserve Management Purchases," may involve buying up to $220 billion in government bonds over the next 12 months, averaging about $40 billion per month [3] Group 2: Market Alerts - The emergency liquidity injection was prompted by the banking system's reserve levels dropping to the "just adequate" threshold, indicated by the SOFR rate reaching 3.77% on December 29, which was 12 basis points above the Fed's reserve rate [5] - The $12.6 trillion repo market has shown signs of stress, suggesting potential financing difficulties without central bank support [5] Group 3: Policy Disagreements - The December FOMC meeting resulted in the highest number of dissenting votes since 2019, with a 9-3 vote to lower rates by 25 basis points [8][10] - Some officials expressed concerns that further rate cuts in a high inflation environment could undermine the Fed's commitment to its 2% inflation target [10] Group 4: Global Impact - The Fed's actions occurred against a backdrop of record global liquidity, which has increased by approximately $490 billion [12] - Following the December FOMC minutes, market expectations shifted to anticipate two rate cuts in 2026, delaying the timeline for the next cut to at least March 2026 [12][16] Group 5: 2026 Outlook - The Fed faces the challenge of balancing inflation risks with employment downturn risks as both remain elevated [14] - The delay in key employment and inflation data due to government shutdowns adds uncertainty to economic assessments [14][16]