2025全球贸易大洗牌，中国的“身份转型”

Core Insights - The article discusses a significant transformation in global trade dynamics, shifting from a focus on efficiency to prioritizing security, which is leading to a major restructuring of global wealth and industrial power [3][10]. Group 1: Changes in Global Trade - Global trade is transitioning from a "cost-optimized" linear connection to a "geopolitical trust" based network structure, resembling a "warehouse exchange" game [6][10]. - Over 70% of multinational companies are increasing inventory redundancy and seeking "suboptimal suppliers" to hedge against risks, indicating a shift in corporate mindset towards precaution [9][10]. - The restructuring of trade chains is not about excluding China but rather integrating Chinese manufacturing in a more discreet and advanced manner into global supply chains [21][22]. Group 2: Impact on Manufacturing and Exports - The U.S. is increasing imports from Mexico and Vietnam, which are becoming "professional intermediaries" in the global trade chain, with Chinese companies sending semi-finished products for final assembly [15][17]. - China's export structure is evolving from low-end products to high-value items like new energy vehicles, lithium batteries, and photovoltaic products, indicating a leap towards becoming a value chain hub [24][26]. - The trade surplus between China and ASEAN is expanding, reflecting deep integration of Chinese supply chains in Southeast Asia [20]. Group 3: Digital Trade and Economic Resilience - The restructuring of trade is leading to a fragmented global trade environment, with regional agreements like RCEP and USMCA creating "VIP clubs" that complicate resource allocation [29][31]. - Despite physical trade barriers, digital trade is thriving, with a nearly 10% year-on-year growth in global digital delivery services trade, positioning China as a leader in this sector [32][33]. - The article concludes that the restructuring process, while painful, is necessary for creating a more resilient economy that prioritizes stability over extreme cost efficiency [34][36].