Investment Highlights - Company is initiating coverage on Yue Yuen Industrial Holdings Limited (00551) with an "outperform" rating and a target price of HKD 19.46, corresponding to a 10.5x P/E for 2026 [1] - The global athletic footwear market is projected to reach USD 167.7 billion in 2024, with a mid-single-digit growth expected over the next five years [1] - Yue Yuen is the largest athletic footwear manufacturer globally, holding over 10% of shipment volume, and its subsidiary, Pou Chen Corporation, is a leading retailer in Greater China [1] Business Model and Client Relationships - Company has strong development capabilities for mid-to-high-end footwear, deeply binding with major international brands like Nike and Adidas, and maintaining long-term collaborations with Asics, New Balance, Salomon, and Arc'teryx [2] - The top five clients account for 80-90% of the manufacturing revenue, indicating a concentrated client base [2] - The company is ahead in global production capacity and has diversified its manufacturing bases [2] Market Conditions and Growth Prospects - Manufacturing business is expected to stabilize due to manageable inventory levels among overseas brands and accelerated product innovation, particularly from Nike [2] - Anticipated improvements in production capacity utilization and resolution of previous capacity ramp-up issues are expected to support revenue growth in the manufacturing segment [2] - The company is expected to achieve a dividend yield of 8.2% by 2026, providing a margin of safety for investors [2] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - Earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be USD 0.23 and USD 0.24 for 2025 and 2026, respectively, with a CAGR of -0.4% from 2024 to 2026 [3] - Current stock price corresponds to an 8.6x P/E for 2026, with a target price of HKD 19.46 indicating a 23% upside potential [3]
裕元集团(00551.HK)：全球运动鞋制造龙头 重拾增长