黄金，价格越跌越买？

Core Insights - The precious metals market is undergoing a structural shift from "financial attributes" to "monetary attributes," with gold and silver price logic being restructured [1] - The issue of U.S. dollar credit is a long-term structural contradiction, exacerbated by the U.S. debt of $38 trillion and high interest payments, undermining the dollar's status as a global reserve currency [1] - Central banks' gold purchasing behavior has shifted from "bottom-line demand" to "active allocation," with 1,037 tons of gold purchased in 2023, accounting for 23.3% of global gold demand [2] Group 1 - The transition in the precious metals market is influenced by the trend of de-dollarization and central bank allocation needs, particularly for gold, which is experiencing a "stepwise upward" price movement [2] - Silver prices have surged over 150% this year, driven by strong demand from the renewable energy sector and declining global inventories [2] - The current gold market does not exhibit a bubble, but prices may experience short-term fluctuations while waiting for new catalysts, such as a clear shift in Federal Reserve monetary policy [3] Group 2 - Investors are advised to view gold as part of asset allocation rather than a short-term speculative tool, with a historical annual compound return of approximately 8% since 1970 [3] - For futures traders, it is recommended to control leverage and extend holding periods to reduce trading costs and avoid excessive pursuit of short-term volatility [3] - The monetary attributes of gold will continue to be highlighted in the context of ongoing credit currency expansion, while silver prices will seek balance between commodity and financial logic [3]