房价企稳回升的四条国际规律

Core Insights - The current market is focused on identifying the bottom of the real estate market, with a report from CITIC Securities outlining four international rules for determining when real estate transitions from weakness to strength [1] Group 1: International Rules for Real Estate Recovery - Rule 1: Transaction volume stabilizes before price recovery, indicating that sales volume must increase first, followed by a decrease in inventory, and finally price stabilization [6][9] - Rule 2: Core city prices rebound first, as seen in historical data where major urban areas show earlier signs of recovery compared to national averages [10] - Rule 3: Monetary easing is a necessary condition, with historical examples showing that a 10-year government bond yield should not exceed core inflation by more than 200 basis points for real estate to stabilize [11] - Rule 4: Improvement in economic growth expectations is a fundamental prerequisite for real estate recovery, as seen in past cycles where economic growth directly influenced housing prices [12] Group 2: Historical Context of Global Real Estate Cycles - The 1970s saw a global real estate turmoil driven by stagflation, with synchronized tightening of monetary policies across Japan, Korea, and the U.S. due to the oil crisis [2] - The 1990s presented a more complex real estate cycle, with Japan experiencing a prolonged downturn while the U.S. enjoyed a booming real estate market driven by technological advancements and demographic trends [4] Group 3: Current Market Conditions in China - The Chinese real estate market is currently in a deep adjustment phase, requiring patience to wait for four key signals: stabilization of sales volume, reduction of inventory in first-tier cities, sufficient monetary easing, and improvement in economic growth expectations [16]