供应链瓶颈制约下全球商用飞机交付量回升，国际航协预测2034年之前供需矛盾难回正轨

Core Insights - The global commercial aircraft manufacturing industry is experiencing a recovery in delivery volumes, but supply chain issues continue to hinder the resolution of demand-supply conflicts among manufacturers, suppliers, and airlines [2][7] - The International Air Transport Association (IATA) forecasts that demand will exceed the availability of aircraft and engines, with structural imbalances expected to persist until 2031-2034 [2][7] Group 1: Aircraft Deliveries - In 2025, China Commercial Aircraft Corporation (COMAC) delivered 15 C919 aircraft, surpassing the 12 delivered in 2024, despite facing production challenges [3] - COMAC's C909 model saw a decline in deliveries, with approximately 20-23 units delivered in 2025 compared to 35 in 2024 [4] - Boeing delivered 537 commercial aircraft by the end of November 2025, with expectations to reach around 590 for the year, a significant increase from 348 in 2024 [5] - Airbus aimed for 790 deliveries in 2025, down from an initial target of 820, having delivered 657 aircraft by the end of November [5] - Embraer set a target of 77-85 E-series jet deliveries for 2025, needing to deliver at least 31 in the last quarter to meet this goal [6] Group 2: Supply Chain Challenges - The aviation industry is facing significant supply chain bottlenecks, with a delivery gap of over 5,300 aircraft and backorders exceeding 17,000, representing nearly 60% of the active fleet [7][9] - The average age of the global fleet has risen to 15.1 years, with older aircraft being retained longer due to delays in new aircraft deliveries [8] - The production bottlenecks are exacerbated by engine supply issues and a shortage of skilled technicians, leading to delays in aircraft assembly [9] Group 3: Financial Implications - IATA estimates that supply chain bottlenecks will result in over $11 billion in additional costs for the global aviation industry in 2025, including $4.2 billion in extra fuel costs and $3.1 billion in increased maintenance costs [10] - The total net profit for global airlines is projected to be $39.5 billion in 2025, with a slight increase to $41 billion in 2026, indicating a low net profit margin due to various external factors [10]