2026：资本市场有哪些“预期差”值得重视？

Group 1 - The A-share market is expected to recover in 2025, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising approximately 18.41% and the STAR Market and ChiNext Indexes increasing by 46.30% and 49.57% respectively, driven by a profound change in risk appetite at the institutional level rather than profit improvement or liquidity [1] - The recovery is characterized by a significant revaluation of the banking sector, driven by debt reduction and a reconstruction of valuation in the construction blue-chip sector, while the technology sector, particularly AI hardware and robotics, becomes a core engine for growth [1][4] - The outlook for 2026 suggests potential "expectation gaps" based on policy logic and market dynamics, with key areas of focus including US-China relations, the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, and domestic fiscal strategies [1][4] Group 2 - The US-China relationship may experience fluctuations due to Trump's political motivations, with potential for a thaw in relations if high-level visits occur early in the year or if trade compromises are made as the midterm elections approach [4] - The Federal Reserve's leadership transition in 2026 is anticipated to create significant shifts in liquidity, with a potential for aggressive rate cuts in the third quarter if inflation and employment weaken [5][8] - Domestic fiscal policy is expected to face constraints, with a focus on targeted spending rather than broad-based infrastructure projects, while monetary policy may remain cautious to maintain the strength of the RMB [9] Group 3 - The A-share market is likely to benefit from capital market policies that support valuations, while the Hong Kong market may be more influenced by economic policies [10][11] - The entry of resident funds into the market is expected to be gradual, driven by a shift from aggressive investment to a more cautious, allocation-based approach, influenced by the real estate market and overall economic sentiment [12][13] - The global technology sector, particularly AI, is projected to continue its upward trend, but with increased volatility and a shift in focus from pure computational power to application-based investments [14][18] Group 4 - The "anti-involution" strategy is seen as a means to enhance national competitiveness, with a focus on strategic industries that can transition from price competition to gaining bargaining power [21][22] - Gold is expected to maintain its upward trajectory due to geopolitical risks and declining monetary credibility, with a focus on supply constraints and strategic demand in commodities like copper and other metals [25][28] - The consumer landscape is shifting towards "emotional consumption," driven by changing demographics and preferences, with new consumption categories such as pet economy and AI companions gaining traction [29][30]